- Brent crude traded at $107.37 a barrel and WTI at $94.31, extending the climb that began Monday despite reports of materially improved oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz since the start of September.
- Kpler estimated daily Hormuz oil flows at 12.8 million barrels, well above expectations, but the increase leans on dark-mode tankers and ship-to-ship transfers after Houthi strikes hit Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline and the port of Yanbu on the Red Sea.
- Tanker rates are at record highs and maritime traffic is being rerouted from the Red Sea to the Cape of Good Hope, adding cost and voyage length to every barrel leaving the Persian Gulf.
- The Brent-WTI spread has widened on reports of a possible US ban on diesel fuel exports.
- Standard Chartered says record CTA long bets are capping oil's upside, with Brent for November delivery up 1.70% to $106.09 on Monday as US-Iran diplomacy produced threats rather than de-escalation.
- Oil and US Treasury yields are in their tightest relationship since 1990, with bond investors watching the Iran conflict and the crude price for signals on where government borrowing costs go.
引述
“A clearer picture is emerging of higher oil export volumes leaving the Gulf, but much of that increase still relies on workarounds such as ship-to-ship transfers. Those methods are less efficient and more costly than normal operations, which is why crude prices remain elevated”
“Oil prices rebounded from their recent slide on fears of U.S.-Iran escalation after attempts at diplomacy yielded mixed results”
“Bond investors watch Iran conflict and crude price for signs as to where government borrowing costs will go”