- Seeking Alpha downgraded the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF from buy to sell, arguing that rising real yields and stronger GDP expectations outweigh TLT’s convexity benefits.
- The bearish Treasury view attributes higher yields to accelerating AI software adoption and productivity gains rather than primarily to debt concerns.
- Citadel Securities reversed its bearish stance on long-dated U.S. Treasuries and turned bullish, a shift that supports long-bond prices and TLT.
- The cluster leaves duration positioning divided, with stronger growth and productivity pressuring bonds against a major market participant’s bullish reversal.
Quotes
“I downgrade iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF from 'buy' to 'sell' due to rising real yields.”
“Citadel Securities reversed its bearish call on long-dated U.S. Treasuries and turned bullish, signaling lower yields and firmer bond prices.”