- Tesla's Q3 10-Q says 2026 capex will be in excess of $20 billion, down from the more than $25 billion guided since April.
- The capex change appeared in the 10-Q filed Wednesday, not in the shareholder letter released the same day.
- Tesla spent $13.01 billion on capex through Q3, so the new $20 billion floor requires about $7 billion in Q4.
- Q3 free cash flow of $1.53 billion depended on a $2.59 billion working capital inflow; without it, free cash flow was about negative $1.06 billion.
- Including $1.03 billion of unpaid capex, Tesla's as-spent free cash flow was closer to $500 million.
- Tesla signed $30 billion of new credit facilities a month before the capex cut; it had undrawn both facilities at quarter-end and $45.4 billion in cash and investments.
- Q3 EPS of $0.48 beat by $0.03, while revenue of $28.05 billion fell 0.17% year over year and missed by $207.14 million.
- Tesla started early Optimus production at Fremont and targets 20,000 units per week by end 2027; Q3 net income fell 43% to $787 million.
Quotes
“to be in excess of $20 billion in 2026”
“massive capex year”
“Demand is growing rapidly for our vehicles.”