- New York Fed researchers find tariff price effects can take up to a year to fully show up in U.S. goods prices.
- The 2025 tariffs added 2.9 percentage points to consumer goods inflation by February 2026, excluding services and oil; without them goods prices would have fallen slightly.
- The effect on consumer goods prices peaked near 3% in February and eased to about 2% by August after a Supreme Court ruling struck down Trump's emergency powers tariffs, replaced by a lower 10% import tax.
- Economists expect tariff price pressures to pick up again as Canadian levies continue to filter through, with higher auto tariffs taking effect next year.
Quotes
“For every percentage point increase in average tariffs, consumer goods prices increase by about a quarter of a percent after one year”
“Nearly 90% of a tariff increase passes through to import prices almost immediately.”