- Spot gold rose 0.4% to $4,158.17 an ounce after September payrolls printed at 29,000 against a 12-month average of 45,000, dropping the chance of an October Fed hike to 22% from 64% a week earlier.
- Downward revisions removed 60,000 jobs — July was cut from a 21,000 gain to a 10,000 loss and August trimmed from 162,000 to 133,000 — weakening the case that the labour market is holding firm.
- Unemployment ticked up to 4.2% and average hourly earnings rose 0.1% to $37.81, leaving annual wage growth at about 3.0%, the slowest since May 2021.
- December hike odds sit near 87% after the Fed's 16 September 25 basis point hike to a 3.75%-4.00% target range, so the weak print delayed tightening rather than ending the cycle.
- Silver gained 1.7% and platinum and palladium each rose 0.6%, while oil fell despite Yemen's escalation on higher Middle East exports and a G7 release, pointing to a macro-driven move rather than a single safe-haven bid.
Quotes
“The weaker labour data eased expectations for an October hike and supported gold, though markets still see the tightening cycle continuing.”