- Micron reports fiscal Q4 results after the bell on Sept. 30, with the stock up more than 1,000% on the AI-driven memory shortage and trading near $1,096.
- The number that matters most in the report is management commentary on 2028: HBM3E and HBM4 are already fully booked through calendar 2027, leaving the timing of the cycle peak as the open question.
- RBC Capital maintained an Outperform rating and $1,500 price target, noting demand continues to outstrip supply because of HBM manufacturing, clean room, and EUV bottlenecks, and that Micron trades near 6.5x projected forward earnings.
- Michael Burry added shorts on Micron, Nebius Group, the SOXX semiconductor ETF, and Palantir, arguing the memory shortage will blow off as production catches up and calling the Nasdaq-100 historically overvalued and top heavy at its all-time high of 30,732.
- Micron's strategic customer agreements cover about 20% of DRAM volume and 33% of NAND volume with take-or-pay minimums and locked price ranges, insulating part of the business from a down cycle.
- Institutional accumulation expanded, with 184 hedge funds holding Micron at the end of Q2 versus 154 in the prior quarter, while short interest stayed at 2.64% of float.
Quotes
“Over the next two years this shortage will blow off as production catches up, and memory will have a down cycle again”
“this is one incredibly cheap stock, which is why we have a giant position for it for the Charitable Trust”
“2028 is key because the company has already said that its high-bandwidth memory, specifically HBM3E and HBM4, are fully booked through calendar 2027”