- Russian oil flows are declining as US sanctions bite and Saudi Arabia restores crude exports, setting up competition for the same buyers.
- The threat of US tariffs adds a second channel of pressure on the Kremlin's war chest, on top of sanctions already crimping flows.
- Saudi supply returning to the market loosens the crude balance Russia relies on to fund its budget.
Quotes
“Returning Saudi crude exports and the threat of US tariffs could eat into the Kremlin’s war chest”