- Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline, which normally moves 4-5 million barrels per day to Yanbu and bypasses the Strait of Hormuz, remains offline after a drone attack damaged three pumping stations; repair estimates range from a partial restart within days to five to six weeks.
- Aramco has sold up to 60 million barrels from Ras Tanura for September and October loadings via ship-to-ship transfers at Sohar, Oman, allowing cargoes to reach Asian buyers outside the Strait of Hormuz.
- November WTI traded in a $94.64-$101.69 weekly range, settling at $96.35 as the Sohar workaround removed the immediate panic premium without restoring normal Saudi export flows.
- Japan's refiners hold enough crude to last through November, with the Petroleum Association of Japan saying Saudi shipments have not stopped entirely and imports have been sourced from Canada, Azerbaijan and Africa while Tokyo releases strategic reserves under the IEA-coordinated 400 million barrel effort.
- Hormuz traffic remains thin, with preliminary vessel counts at four transits on Tuesday and three on Wednesday versus roughly 125 daily movements before the war, though Macquarie estimates crude, condensate and product flows still exceed 7.5 million barrels per day.
- Diesel and gasoil did not follow crude lower, with European gasoil at a record high and U.S. ultra-low sulfur diesel near record territory on Russian refinery damage, fuel-export restrictions and lost Middle East product flows.
Quotes
“supplies from Saudi Arabia have not ceased entirely”
“pipeline flows could resume within days”
“The market is now putting a smaller premium on it.”