- Crude oil gained about 1% on Wednesday after renewed U.S.-Iran strikes raised escalation risks and dimmed hopes of restored oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz.
- Transit volumes through the Strait of Hormuz have fallen below normal levels, with reports of tankers hitting sea mines; crude prices are up more than 30% since the conflict began.
- Crude oil surged 4.35% on September 1 to 139.52 after breaking above 133.7, with institutional buying and short liquidations driving the move.
- J.P. Morgan’s historical analysis cited in the cluster says equities tended to be higher over the following 12 months after oil rose more than 50%, challenging the assumption that an oil spike automatically signals sustained market weakness.
Quotes
“Crude oil prices added ~1% in a volatile session Wednesday”
“After 50%+ oil price move, equities tended to be higher over the next 12 months”
“This represents a rare, outsized volatility shock with strong, one-sided momentum.”