X discussionSPY sold off four sessions on $100-plus oil and a rates backup, then bounced Friday after CPI even as Sept. 16 hike odds sat near 80–90%. The 10-year tagged ~4.98% and crude stayed elevated into next week's FOMC, turning that bounce into the week's central bull-bear fight over whether a real correction has started.
BullThe Friday rebound repaired structure and keeps the path toward new highs open. Sellers undercut the 50-day EMA and failed to hold below it, with measured targets still cited toward the high-780s after the CPI pop.
BearHot yields and the oil shock are the start of a real, non-V correction. Midterm-year drawdown history and bearish weekly signals are being cited for an 18% SPY drop over the next four months while the 10-year and crude keep pressure on.
Posts
Bull evidence
@ATMSnipesAll-time highs remain the SPY target after sellers failed to hold below the 50-day EMA through PPI and CPI
@JPATradesTrump's Iran war-ending comments set up SPY to 800
@alshfawSPY's gap-fill at ~758 and lower-band bounce set a bullish CPI-day retest toward the 765–766 zone
Bear evidence
@TheProfInvestorYields' hot weekly candle foreshadows a serious non-V SPY correction like the 2022 path after months of rising rates
@TraderJonesyMidterm-year drawdown history plus bearish weekly/monthly signals call for an 18% SPY drop in the next four months
@King0ftheChartsCrude's 6%+ surge confirms an oil-shock inflation scare already driving a stock-market crash in SPY