- Blended Q3 2026 S&P 500 earnings growth is 29.0%, a slight decrease from prior estimates on Health Care downward revisions, partly offset by Energy.
- 84% of companies beat EPS estimates versus a 78% five-year average, but the aggregate earnings surprise of 2.6% sits below the 7.5% five-year average.
- Blended Q3 revenue growth is 12.6%, the third straight quarter of double-digit revenue growth, with all eleven sectors contributing.
- The S&P 500 chops around a flattish 50-day moving average while the AI-hardware cohort has badly broken stride and bank stocks trade poorly off their results.
- JP Morgan technical strategist Jason Hunter keeps the S&P 500 on a short leash extending about 2.5% lower to 7500.
- Energy stocks dominate the latest wave of EPS estimate upgrades for 2027 over the last month, with Occidental Petroleum (OXY) among the largest.
- Bank of America economist Aditya Bhave maintains a non-consensus call for an October Fed rate hike, conceding it is a close call.
Quotes
“We think some acknowledgement of this tightening by Warsh would be well received by rate-sensitive areas that have already derated notably.”
“With the bearish seasonal window now closing, we are left wondering if the market is in the terminal phase of a sequence of rolling corrections ahead of a typical late-year rally.”