X discussionQQQ sold off Friday after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's hawkish Jackson Hole speech. September hike odds jumped into the mid-50s as the 2-year yield spiked and the post-Nvidia tech bid stalled. Traders now split on whether Nasdaq-100 weakness starts a rates flush or traps shorts into new highs.
BullFriday's dip is a Warsh yield scare, not a breakdown. Mag 7 held firm with the VIX red, and multimillion-dollar near-dated QQQ call buys flagged a squeeze into Monday ATHs.
BearA short-term QQQ flush is live after Warsh put September hikes back on the table. FedWatch jumped to about 57% for a Sept 16 hike while the VIX sat near 14 with indexes pinned near highs — classic setup for indiscriminate profit-taking.
Posts
Bull evidence
@WheelieInvestorInverse Kevin signal: QQQ hits ATHs Monday — load the boat.
@CheddarFlowSomeone bought $2M of OTM QQQ calls expiring in only 3 weeks.
@korinek_tradesBig bear trap setting up into the close; squeeze fires next session.
Bear evidence
@kevinxuWent all-in on SQQQ at 38.49 as a 3x short of QQQ.
@kevinxuSQQQ thesis: FedWatch at 57.5% for a Sept 16 hike, yields climbing, VIX too low near highs.
@leadlagreportWarsh never promised a hike and the tape still repriced: QQQ −0.52% as the 10Y jumped to 4.73%.