- Costco fiscal Q4 revenue rose 11.1% year over year to $95.72 billion, ahead of the $94.86 billion LSEG consensus, and adjusted EPS rose 15% to $6.75, beating expectations even after stripping out a 15-cent tariff-refund benefit.
- Membership fee income grew 7.3% to $1.85 billion, slightly below the $1.86 billion FactSet estimate, while paid members of 84.1 million grew 3.8% y/y, the latest step in a deceleration from 4.1%, 4.8% and 5.2% growth in fiscal Q3, Q2 and Q1 2026.
- Worldwide renewal rate rose to 89.8% from 89.7% in the prior three quarters and U.S./Canada renewal rose to 92.3% from 92.2%, while executive tier memberships reached an all-time high of 42.3 million.
- Members under 40 have grown nearly 60% since Covid and now exceed a quarter of the total member base, a positive for lifetime value but a churn risk because digital signups renew at lower rates than in-store signups.
- Costco shares closed at $896.48, down 18% from their May 19 closing high, versus a nearly 20% decline for rival Walmart over the same stretch; the analyst cut the price target to $1,050 from $1,100.
Quotes
“Renewal rates showed improvements again this quarter, with the increasing executive penetration likely to help improve those rates in the future.”
“Growth in new member signups through digital channels and younger members also continued.”