- OPEC+ plans to decide Sunday whether to lift oil-production quotas for a sixth consecutive month.
- Higher quotas do not ensure higher exports because Persian Gulf producers depend on shipping conditions through the Strait of Hormuz.
- The U.S. and Israel’s war with Iran disrupted tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which previously handled about 25% of global seaborne oil trade.
Quotes
“Quota policy matters because it signals OPEC+’s medium-term strategy, but physical flows remain the dominant driver of the market while regional disruption persists.”
“[T]he real risk is no longer simply whether enough crude exists. It is whether the crude can move, be refined and reach the right market without rising freight, insurance and processing costs.”