- JPMorgan pulled its Brent forecast, telling clients it has no baseline view on oil for the first time since the Iran conflict started and cannot model how the war ends. The bank's three "economic redlines" — $100 Brent, a $5 national gasoline average, and a 5% 10-year Treasury yield — have all been crossed.
- Brent traded at $95 a barrel on Monday after holding near $100 through the summer, with the US national gasoline average at $4.48 a gallon. Diesel hit a record $6.51 a gallon, above the prior $5 record set in June 2022, with inventories thin ahead of winter peak demand.
- ING said supply-side risks remain elevated beyond the Middle East. An armed group shut a valve on the pipeline linking Libya's Sharara field to the Zawiya export terminal, cutting output to about 127,000 barrels per day from roughly 340,000 bpd.
- Oil reversed higher Tuesday ahead of the UN General Assembly, with Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent threatening to cut Iranian airlines out of the dollar system from Wednesday by denying them fuel, landing services, and ticket sales.
Quotes
“For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view”
“We simply don't know how to model the endgame.”
“Supply-side risks remain elevated”
“How do we do that? That if they land, you cannot provide them with fuel. You cannot provide them with landing services, you cannot sell them tickets, or you will be knocked out of the dollar system”