X discussionNike trades near $38, its lowest price in more than 12 years and roughly 80% below the 2021 peak, after erasing about $230B in market value. S&P Dow Jones Indices set Nike to leave the S&P 100 on September 21 after an 18-year run, while traders argue whether the print marks maximum pessimism or permanent dead money.
BullThe selloff already prices China weakness, wholesale repair, and the S&P 100 exit, so $38 is a deep-discount entry on a still-iconic brand. Monthly RSI just printed oversold for the first time in Nike's public history since 1980.
BearNike looks cheap versus the old high, not versus earnings power after FY21–FY26 revenue grew only 4% while net income fell 46%. Greater China operating profit fell 61%, and BMO initiated Underperform with a $30 target on a delayed earnings recovery.
Posts
Bull evidence
@OhMyOhMarBought Nike LEAPs at the deep discount, citing prior wins on UNH at 250 and MSFT at 370.
@The_Blake_VICNike's monthly RSI is oversold for the first time since 1980, targeting a relief rally toward $47–$60.
Bear evidence
@onechancefreedmDTC failure and China profit collapse leave Nike near 24x adjusted earnings, so $38 is not a durable bottom.
@fitz_keithNike is dead money after poor management; would not buy despite undervaluation calls.
Context
@BarchartNike fell to its lowest price in more than 12 years.
@EdgeCGroupAfter an ~80% collapse, Nike is either at maximum pessimism or permanent dead money.