Long-term Treasury yields face a structural supply-demand squeeze

Rallies+2 · 6 hours ago
Long-term Treasury yields face a structural supply-demand squeeze
  • The 30-year Treasury yield recently reached its highest level since 2007 and stood at about 5.172%, reflecting a sharp repricing of long-duration government debt.
  • Federal debt above $40 trillion and expanding Treasury issuance are increasing the supply of government bonds that investors must absorb at higher yields.
  • The marginal buyer base has shifted from less price-sensitive overseas central banks toward hedge funds and other price-sensitive investors, raising volatility and the term premium.
  • AI data-center financing is adding substantial corporate bond supply, with major technology borrowers competing with the Treasury for investor capital.