- Beijing's 15% tariff, imposed in February 2025, cut recorded US LNG shipments to China from 64 vessels in 2024 to zero in 2025; US cargoes were 0.2% of China's LNG imports from January through July 2026.
- China diversified away from US supply: Australia took 36% of its LNG imports, Southeast Asia 20%, Russia 12% and Canada 4%. Chinese buyers kept honoring existing contracts but resold US cargoes into Europe and Asia rather than pay the tariff.
- Iranian missile strikes on Qatar's Ras Laffan complex on March 18-19 destroyed two of 14 LNG production trains, knocking out about 17% of Qatar's export capacity at an estimated $20 billion a year in lost revenue, with repairs projected to take up to five years. QatarEnergy declared force majeure and Qatar bought nearly three dozen US spot cargoes from Venture Global to meet commitments to Japan, South Korea, India, Bangladesh and Taiwan.
- The China Gas Holdings-Venture Global contract starts deliveries in 2030, leaving Beijing four years to remove or renegotiate the tariff. Chinese companies already hold close to 25 million tonnes a year of US LNG offtake signed since 2018 under 20-to-25-year contracts.
- S&P Global, Wood Mackenzie and JPMorgan cut China's LNG demand outlook by 14 to 22 million tons for the early 2030s, and China's 2025 total of 68.43 million tons was a three-year low. Reuters estimates 24.5 million tonnes a year of Gulf Coast LNG capacity now under construction has no long-term buyer.
Quotes
“Beijing's 15% tariff, imposed in February 2025, days into Trump's second term, cut recorded US LNG shipments to China from 64 vessels in 2024 to zero in 2025.”
“three major forecasters have cut China's LNG demand outlook by 14 to 22 million tons for the early 2030s: S&P Global, Wood Mackenzie, and JPMorgan”
“Reuters estimates 24.5 million tonnes a year of Gulf Coast LNG capacity now under construction has no long-term buyer.”
“China Gas secured supply without committing to import a single cargo under the current tariff regime.”