- JPMorgan's commodities research team said it cannot model an endgame for the conflict, noting that the $100 oil, 4% inflation, $5 gasoline and 5% 10-year yield thresholds it assumed would force a deal have largely been crossed.
- Crude benchmarks held above $100 a barrel, with Brent down 0.9% at $104.85 and WTI down 0.6% at $101.85, as Saudi export measures offset part of the supply risk.
- Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb remained far below normal, with only three commodity vessels crossing Hormuz on Wednesday versus 12 the prior day and 21 crossing Bab el-Mandeb versus 24.
- The Federal Reserve raised rates for the first time in more than three years and signaled further increases into 2027, with Chair Kevin Warsh citing inflation that is too high and has been for too long.
- Trump said the Iran war will not end until after November's midterms and that oil prices will tumble right after the election.
Quotes
“For the first time since the start of the Iran conflict, we don't have a baseline view. We simply don't know how to model the endgame.”
“Six months later [since the war began], many of those lines have been crossed, yet the exit strategy is less clear, not more”
“The market is on edge”
“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward”
“these developments could allow Saudi Arabia to increase its oil exports”