- S&P Global Institute report published Monday calls the energy shock a multidirectional squeeze on world agriculture from diesel costs, fertilizer, biofuel demand and El Niño.
- IMF World Economic Outlook projects fertilizer prices up 10 percent by end-2026, adding 5 percent to food costs in 2026 and 2.4 percent in 2027.
- Half of the world's fertilizer feedstock exports passed through the Strait of Hormuz before the February offensive in Iran, and fertilizer prices roughly doubled after the strait closed on February 28.
- Gulf gas output needs months or years to recover even if the Strait stays open, leaving low-income countries, where food is about half of household spending, most exposed.
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“multidirectional squeeze on world agriculture”
“The risk is increasing, especially for low-income countries, where food costs amount to about half of household spending.”
“Fertilizer companies will still have to wait for natural gas production in the Gulf to ramp up to regain their feedstock supply, which will take months or even years”
“The disruption of the Strait of Hormuz can push 45 million more people into hunger and starvation”