- Euro area GDP growth expectations for 2026 were slashed by 0.4 percentage points to just 0.6%, with slight downward revisions also noted for 2027 and the longer-term horizon.
- Core inflation expectations (HICPX) for 2026 were revised upward by 0.2 percentage points to 2.4%, reflecting recent data trends and aligning more closely with Eurosystem staff projections.
- Headline inflation is projected to reach the ECB's 2.0% target by 2028 and remain there in the longer term, though risks are currently tilted to the upside for 2026.
Quotes
“Respondents’ expectations for headline inflation, as measured by the Harmonised Index of Consumer Prices (HICP), stood at 2.7% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.0% for 2028.”
“Expectations for HICP inflation excluding food and energy (HICPX) stood at 2.4% for 2026, 2.2% for 2027 and 2.1% for 2028.”