- EIA expects US crude production to average a record 13.8 million bpd in 2026.
- EIA expects distillate stocks to fall below 100 million barrels and stay under the five-year range through much of 2027.
- Distillate is about 30% of US refinery yield, and refinery utilization averaged roughly 96% in Q3.
- Operable refining capacity fell about 250,000 bpd from a year earlier to about 18.2 million bpd.
- Russia, China and the Middle East have curbed fuel supply, so an end to the Iran conflict would not refill stocks quickly.
Quotes
“Refiners can’t simply make more diesel.”
“A record amount of crude oil can be produced while refined-product markets remain tight”