- September nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 and unemployment rose to 4.2%, according to the official jobs release as relayed.
- Inflation remains elevated, partly because Brent is near USD 104, setting up a tug of war between a slowing labor market and persistent prices.
- One bank strategist says a core CPI surprise would be needed to revive October hike bets, making December the likelier date for any further increase. The Fed has not confirmed this view.
- The September CPI report releases October 14 and the next FOMC decision is October 27 and 28, 2026.
- The 10-year Treasury yield is near 5.25%, close to multi-decade highs, raising borrowing costs across the economy.
Quotes
“Nonfarm payrolls rose only 29,000 in September 2026, and the Unemployment rate rose to 4.2%”
“Long bonds respond to both growth and inflation.”