- TLT experienced approximately $2.8 billion in net inflows during the week ending October 2, constituting about 6% of its asset base, as the 30-year Treasury yield reached 5.67%, the highest since July 2002.
- TLT hit a 52-week low of $76.76 while inflows continued, with an effective duration of 14.74 years making it highly sensitive to long-term yield movements.
- The 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 5.34% on October 1, its highest since 2002, after rising 87.1 basis points in Q3, the biggest quarterly increase since 1994.
- Analysts suggest shorter-duration Treasuries such as IEF, SHY, and SGOV may be safer alternatives, as TLT's 30-day SEC yield was 5.49% but duration risk remains significant.
- A weak jobs report pushed the 10-year yield down to around 5.17% on Friday, as markets reduced expectations for an October Fed rate hike.
Quotes
“SWEET TEMPTATION: Money keeps pouring into $TLT as it keeps going down, and the more it goes down the more tempting it gets, like a bowl of ice cream and each 1% move down is another topping and you're starving. If history is any guide it's best to just walk past the ice cream…”