- US crude oil inventories rose 2.969M barrels in the latest reporting period, missing the consensus estimate of a 0.700M-barrel draw and reversing the prior week's 640K-barrel drawdown.
- ARK Invest forecasts oil prices falling to $30-$35 per barrel, citing IEA projections of a 2.5 million bpd drop in global oil demand and a 5.7 million bpd drop in production to 100.7 mbd.
- ARK attributes the demand shift to electrification of transportation, which it says accounts for roughly 57% of global oil demand, and points to quota cheating by Iraq, Nigeria and Kazakhstan plus a 78% UAE production surge to ~4.1 mbd.
- Norway's total liquids production rose 97,000 bpd, or about 4.9%, to 2.073 million bpd in August, with crude at 1.882 million bpd beating the Directorate's 1.803 million bpd forecast but still 3.8% below August 2025.
- Norwegian natural gas output fell 9.7 million standard cubic meters per day from July to 342 mmscm/d, 6.6 mmscm/d below forecast, a supply negative for Europe ahead of the winter heating season.
Quotes
“Global oil demand projected to fall by 2.5 million barrels per day”
“transportation accounts for approximately 57% of global oil demand”
“The key question is whether output continues to recover as summer maintenance ends”