- Sandisk has pre-sold roughly half of its current fiscal year flash output and two-thirds of next year's under long-term contracts carrying undisclosed price floors and ceilings, replacing spot-market exposure with committed volumes.
- The stock is up more than 640% this year, the best performer in the S&P 500, and joined the S&P 100 on September 21 after being spun off from Western Digital in February 2025.
- Revenue rose 372% year over year to $8.97 billion in the quarter ended July 3, swinging to a profit of nearly $7 billion, with data-center sales now about a third of the total.
- Management targets mid-to-high-teens revenue growth and adjusted gross margins around 80% for fiscal 2028 through 2030, and authorized an additional $14 billion buyback alongside August results.
- The shares trade at about eight times current fiscal year earnings, a multiple typical of memory stocks at a cycle peak, and closed about 24% below their June record.
- Samsung, SK Hynix, Micron and Kioxia are all adding capacity or moving to denser chips, and the floor prices are set above where NAND trades in a glut, a level Sandisk has not disclosed.
Quotes
“Sandisk Corporation (NASDAQ: SNDK) has locked in buyers for roughly half of its output this fiscal year and two-thirds of next year's.”
“The pricing power that took Sandisk's gross margin to 84.6% last quarter will erode the moment supply catches up with demand.”
“The $14 billion buyback is being funded by a single windfall year, which means Sandisk is spending peak-cycle cash at prices that may also prove to be peak-cycle.”
“The next signal is the fiscal first-quarter report, expected in early November.”