Heurist Finance

TSMC lifts 2026 capex to $64 billion as AI demand drives record HPC mix

Infotechlead+2 · 8 hours ago
TSM
TSMC lifts 2026 capex to $64 billion as AI demand drives record HPC mix
  • TSMC reported Q2 2026 revenue of $40.2 billion, up 33.7% year over year and 12% sequentially, with net income up 77.4% to NT$706.56 billion. Gross margin was 67.7%, operating margin 60.3%, and net profit margin 55.6%.
  • High-performance computing reached 66% of Q2 2026 revenue, up from 61% in Q1 and 60% a year earlier, while smartphones contributed 22%. Advanced nodes of 7nm and below made up 77% of wafer revenue, with 2nm already at 3% at the start of its ramp.
  • TSMC guided Q3 2026 revenue to $44.6 billion-$45.8 billion versus $43.1 billion consensus, with gross margin of 65%-67% and operating margin of 56%-58%, and expects FY26 revenue growth slightly above 40% in US dollar terms.
  • TSMC raised 2026 capital expenditure to $60 billion-$64 billion from $52 billion-$56 billion, with 70-80% of the budget directed to advanced process technologies. Quarterly capex jumped to $15.59 billion, 42% above the prior quarter.
  • Advanced packaging is the second bottleneck alongside wafer capacity: TSMC produces 5.5-reticle CoWoS packages today, plans a 14-reticle platform in 2028 integrating roughly 10 compute dies and 20 HBM stacks, and targets 40-reticle SoW-X in 2029.
  • August 2026 revenue reached NT$514.81 billion, up 53.3% year over year and 10.1% from July, bringing January-August revenue to NT$3.387 trillion, a 39.3% increase over the same 2025 period.

Quotes

“Our business in the second quarter was supported by strong demand for our leading-edge process technologies.”— TSMC management
“In the second quarter, shipments of 2-nanometer accounted for 3% of total wafer revenue; 3-nanometer accounted for 30%; 5-nanometer accounted for 33%; and 7-nanometer accounted for 11%. Advanced technologies, defined as 7-nanometer and more advanced technologies, accounted for 77% of total wafer revenue”— TSMC

Sources