- The Fed is expected to lift rates for the first time since 2023, with the chair likely to leave the door open on a further move rather than commit in either direction.
- Forward oil and diesel curves show prices staying higher for longer, which policymakers read as a second-round inflation risk building ahead of them.
- A single dissent is likely at most, with committee members expected to give the new chair deference; more than one dissent, particularly from Chris Waller, would signal real dissension inside the Fed.
- Political risk sits over the decision: Donald Trump is in Washington during the meeting and speaks in North Carolina tonight, a venue to vent if the Fed hikes.
Quotes
“the chair will go out of his way to leave that question open”
“So when they're looking forward, they can see problems coming as well.”
“I think he would take a big hit if they held today”