- The weak September jobs report lowered near-term Fed hike odds: employers added just 29,000 jobs versus forecasts near 84,000–90,000, and unemployment ticked up to 4.2%.
- Long-dated Treasury yields still rose, with the 10-year near 5.31% (a 24-year high) and the 30-year near 5.67% (highest since 2002), reflecting sticky inflation and fiscal supply concerns.
- Fed officials are divided on the path: September projections reportedly signal one more hike this year, while Governor Bowman reportedly preferred none; upcoming minutes and the October 27–28 meeting are key.
Quotes
“September payrolls rose 29,000 against forecasts of about 84,000 to 90,000, a miss of roughly 55,000 to 61,000 by simple arithmetic, while unemployment rose to 4.2 percent from 4.1 percent.”
“Weak jobs normally lower yields, yet the 10-year rose to about 5.31 percent, its highest close in 24 years, and the 30-year to about 5.67 percent, the highest since 2002.”
“Officials appear divided: the September projections reportedly signal one more hike this year, while Governor Bowman has reportedly preferred none.”