- Gold was steady after a moderate gain as traders weighed Middle East tensions after Trump said the US would not attack Iran before the November midterm elections.
- Ten-year real yields reached their highest level since 2008 and the dollar hit an 18-month high, driving gold's recent decline.
- Central bank and ETF demand remain firm, with the People's Bank of China extending its gold-buying streak and global gold ETFs posting a fifth straight month of inflows in September.
- September nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 with unemployment at 4.2%, supporting rate-cut bets and gold's safe-haven appeal.
- The Fed raised the federal funds rate to 3.75%-4.00% on September 16, 2026, citing elevated inflation, so rate cuts are not yet confirmed.
- A break below $4,100 would expose downside toward $3,960-$4,000, with the rate market driving gold until real yields reverse.